|Decision Tree Assignment|
|Play now? Play later?|
|You can become a millionaire! That’s what the junk mail said. But then there was the fine print:|
|If you send in your entry before midnight tonight, then here are your chances:|
|0.1% that you win $1,000,000|
|75% that you win nothing|
|Otherwise, you must PAY $1,000|
|But wait, there’s more! If you don’t win the million AND you don’t have to pay on your first attempt,|
|then you can choose to play one more time. If you choose to play again, then here are your chances:|
|2% that you win $100,000|
|20% that you win $500|
|Otherwise, you must PAY $2,000|
|What is your expected outcome for attempting this venture? Solve this problem using|
|a decision tree and clearly show all calculations and the expected monetary value at each node.|
|Use maximization of expected value as your decision criterion.|
|Answer these questions:|
|1) Should you play at all? (5%) If you play, what is your expected (net) monetary value? (15%)|
|2) If you play and don’t win at all on the first try (but don’t lose money), should you try again? (5%) Why? (10%)|
|3) Clearly show the decision tree (40%) and expected net monetary value at each node (25%)|
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